The Impact of Higher Interest Rates

Contrary to what most people seem to believe, it’s not automatic that higher mortgage rates are negative for housing activity. There are lots of historical examples where sales and prices rose along with interest rates.  For example, between 1978 and 1980 mortgage rates were headed towards 18% yet sales activity and house prices continued to climb.  The reason? As long as people perceive that the price increase will be bigger than the cost of borrowing they will continue to borrow. As soon as the price perception changes then the buying dries up


https://www.verico.ca/economicupdate_michaelcampbell_nov2018/#MichaelCampbell_Report 

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Modest Home Price Growth Forecasted for 2019


Home prices across the country are expected to rise in 2019, but only at a moderate pace compared with recent years, according to two of Canada’s largest residential real estate brokerages.

Royal LePage is anticipating the national median home price will increase by 1.2 per cent in 2019, with prices in Toronto and the surrounding areas expected to rise 1.3 per cent to $854,552.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver are forecast to go up by just 0.6 per cent to $1.29 million, while home prices in Montreal and the nearby region are expected to see the largest rise out of Canada’s biggest cities, with home prices anticipated to jump three per cent to $421,306 in 2019.

https://vancouversun.com/pmn/business-pmn/modest-home-price-growth-forecasted-for-2019-re-max-and-royal-lepage/wcm/d0ac09dc-3d81-4954-95f9-77d307ef915e

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Foreign money has played a central role in Metro Vancouver’s housing crisis. This is the view of the vast majority of Metro Vancouverites. In poll after pollyear after year, a strong majority of Metro Vancouverites have deemed “foreign buyers or investors” to be either the most important factor, or among the most important factors in the crisis.

https://www.straight.com/news/1162801/josh-gordon-vancouverites-dont-need-re-education-about-foreign-ownership-and-housing

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It may be legal to smoke, grow, and possess marijuana come Oct. 17, but that doesn't mean Canadians looking to purchase real estate are suddenly going to be chill about it.


According to a new report on cannabis and real estate from real estate site Zoocasa, 52 per cent of Canadians say they'd be less likely to consider specific houses for sale if they knew a legal amount of cannabis was grown in it.


https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/10/15/canadians-cannabis-property-values_a_23561679/?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

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A recent report by RBC Economic Research warned that housing affordability continues to worsen in Canada. The ownership costs for a home bought in the second quarter of 2018 now consume 53.9 per cent of a typical household’s income.


The RBC report claims that housing affordability has not been this bad in Canada since the early nineties. In large metropolitan areas that saw a rapid acceleration in housing prices, such as Vancouver and Toronto, housing carrying costs could claim upwards of 75 per cent of a typical household’s income.


https://vancouversun.com/real-estate/the-new-housing-affordability-crisis-will-be-driven-by-higher-mortgage-rates-not-higher-home-prices/wcm/0482078c-debb-4b93-b69f-ac607f77a258

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The new North American trade deal struck on Sunday may open the door for the Bank of Canada to pick up the pace of interest rates hikes, according to economists at some of the country’s biggest banks.


With the introduction of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, an October rate hike by the central bank now appears to be a lock, analysts say, with more expected to follow in 2019.


https://vancouversun.com/investing/nafta-update-will-test-polozs-caution-on-canadian-rate-hikes/wcm/5bee7fd8-dc5e-4c6e-82f8-996bd43e7f3b 

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Got a million dollars to plow into real estate? Vancouver’s a great place to park it, thanks to a property-tax rate that’s the lowest in both Canada and the U.S.

  

The owner of a C$1 million ($770,000) home in the Pacific Coast city will pay just C$2,468 a year in property tax, compared with C$6,355 in Toronto or more than C$10,000 in Ottawa, according to a new study by real estate website Zoocasa that looked at rates in 25 major Canadian markets.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-02/vancouver-s-homes-may-be-costly-to-buy-but-they-re-cheap-to-own


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The world's biggest central bank is expected to raise rates this week — and then keep raising them.

Markets are so certain that U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will raise rates this week that a failure to hike would likely have worse consequences for American markets than the impact of higher borrowing costs

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-rates-housing-1.4831333


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  • 56 per cent of boomers consider their local housing market unaffordable for retirement
  • 9 per cent of boomer parents do not expect their kids to move out until after the age of 35; this number is almost three times higher in British Columbia
  • 32 per cent of boomers looking to buy in the next five years most likely to purchase a condo


https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news_fr/more-than-1-4-million-boomers-across-canada-expect-to-buy-a-home-in-the-next-five-years/

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June 14, 2018, Vancouver, BC – New rules approved by the Superintendent of Real Estate (OSRE) to enhance consumer protection in the real estate industry come into effect June 15, 2018. The rules will be enforced by the Real Estate Council of BC and they will ensure that consumers have better information to make informed decisions, and that real estate professionals act with undivided loyalty to serve their clients’ best interests. Among other things, these rules will:

 

https://www.recbc.ca/wp-content/uploads/News_Release_June_14.pdf 

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Three months into B.C.’s experience with tighter mortgage-qualification rules, layered in with provincial real-estate tax changes, property markets are starting to shift.

However, parsing out the whether the provincial measures — the speculation tax on second homes, school surtax on expensive homes and raising the property transfer tax — are having a big, small or any impact on the housing market is an open question.

 

http://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/b-c-property-markets-starting-to-shift-after-tighter-mortgage-rules-tax-changes/wcm/5bdf1b26-6455-40a6-8c8a-597e5e1bfa9c 

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British Columbia’s new speculation tax on out-of-province buyers will likely convince a wave of owners to sell their vacation properties, pushing down home prices, said a forecast from Royal LePage.

 

By the end of September, the real estate company is expecting the average price of a recreational home in B.C. to reach $531,333, a 2.8 per cent drop from last year’s average of $546,444.

 

Under B.C.’s speculation regulations, owners outside the province will be taxed 0.5 per cent this year, but next year will see the rate climb to 2 per cent for foreign investors and 1 per cent for Canadian citizens and permanent residents not living in B.C. but owning properties in the province.

 

http://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/b-c-housing-tax-to-cause-vacation-property-price-dip-royal-lepage-forecast/wcm/19e835ea-80ab-48d1-8525-0e596516cf25 

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If we are serious about slowing the hyperactive escalator lifting our housing prices to higher and higher levels, then we have to push the emergency button and explore what part is malfunctioning.

It is not a deflection to start with our own governments’ responsibilities. It is the best place to start, for good reason.

 

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/government-major-contributor-higher-metro-house-prices

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Careful What You Wish For........ The Economic Fallout of Housing Price Shocks


The desire of some well-meaning British Columbians for government to drive down the price of homes through demand-side policy may sound practical at first blush. However, when you consider the broad and deep economic toll that a negative shock to home prices would exact on both homeowners and renters, it quickly becomes apparent that such an approach is at best, a mug’s game. BCREA Economics analysis* shows that even a relatively modest negative price shock will produce significant consequences to the BC economy. 

 

http://bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-forecasts-and-presentations/the-economic-fallout-of-housing-price-shocks.pdf?sfvrsn=2

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BC budget includes new real estate taxes and spending commitments

Housing was the dominant issue in today’s provincial budget.

 

The government released a 30-point housing strategy aimed at reducing housing demand, curbing tax fraud, building affordable housing, and increasing security for renters. 

 

Please see the complete Budget 2018 by clicking on the link below:

 

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2018/newsrelease/2018_News_Release.pdf

 

 

Affordable housing

  • The province is investing $6 billion in affordable housing to create 114,000 homes over the next 10 years.
  • The province will enhance local government capacity to build and retain affordable housing.
  • The province will require developers to collect and report comprehensive information about the assignment of pre-sale condo purchases.
  • The province intends to track beneficial ownership information.
  • The province will collect additional information to increase transparency and strengthen enforcement in real estate.

Tax measures

Speculation tax

  • The province will implement a new speculation tax on residential properties, targeting foreign and domestic homeowners who don’t pay income tax in BC. This includes those who leave homes vacant.
  • The tax will apply to the Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Capital, and Nanaimo Regional districts and in the municipalities of Kelowna and West Kelowna.
  • In 2018, the tax rate will be $5 per $1,000 of assessed value. In 2019, the tax rate will rise to $20 per $1,000 of assessed value.
  • The province will administer the tax and will collect data to enforce it including, social insurance numbers, household information, and world-wide income information.

Foreign buyer tax

  • Effective Feb. 21, 2018, the foreign buyer tax will increase to 20 per cent from 15 per cent and will be extended to the Fraser Valley, Capital, Nanaimo, and Central Okanagan Regional Districts.
  • If the property is located in the Capital Regional District, Fraser Valley Regional District, Regional District of Central Okanagan, or Nanaimo Regional District, and the property transfer is registered on or after February 21, 2018, there are transitional rules available here.

Property Transfer Tax

Effective Feb. 21, 2018, the Property Transfer Tax on residential properties above $3 million will increase to five per cent from three per cent.

Provincial School Tax

Beginning in 2019, the provincial school tax will increase on most residential properties in excess of $3 million.

 

 

Database on pre-sale condo assignments

The province will require developers to collect and report comprehensive information about the assignment of pre-sale condo purchases. The information will be reported to a designated government office and shared with federal and provincial tax authorities to ensure taxes are paid.

Online accommodation PST and MRDT

Online accommodation platforms are enabled to collect and remit the Provincial Sales Tax and Municipal and Regional District Tax (Hotel Room Tax).

Property tax treatment for ALR land

As part of the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) review, the province is examining residential land in the ALR to ensure land is used for farming.

 

Clarity of property ownership

Compelling access to MLS®

The province plans to enable tax administrators to compel access to information relevant to property transfers, such as information held in a MLS® database. 

Beneficial land ownership registry

The province will require additional information about beneficial ownership on the PTT form.

Administered by the LTSA, the information will be publicly available and shared with federal and provincial tax and law enforcement authorities. Legislation will be introduced to require BC corporations to hold accurate and up to date information on beneficial owners in their own record offices available to law enforcement, tax and other authorities.

Task force on money laundering and tax evasion

The province will work with the federal government to formalize a multi-agency working group on tax evasion, money laundering and housing.

Residential Tenancy Branch

Increased funding to the Residential Tenancy Branch to reduce wait time, improve service and deal with disputes more quickly, as well as strengthening the Residential Tenancy Act and the penalties for those who repeatedly break the law.

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New taxes unlikely to stabilize housing market Victoria, BC – February 20, 2018.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association calls on government to introduce transitional rules for all transactions impacted by the new tax measures introduced in Budget 2018. The new tax measures come into effect on February 21, 2018. The Property Transfer Tax (PTT) increase to 5% for properties over $3 million, as well as the increase to 20% and expansion of the Foreign Buyer’s Tax to other parts of the province will have an immediate impact on transactions underway.

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/News-2018/2018-02-20BCBudget.pdf?sfvrsn=8 

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Mortgage Rate Outlook Canadian mortgage rates rose substantially in 2017 and are forecast to rise further in 2018. After beginning the year at or near historical lows for both the qualifying rate as well as 5-year contract rates, an acceleration of economic growth prompted a shift at the Bank of Canada and a withdrawal of stimulus implemented to help the economy absorb the oil-shock of 2015.

 

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-forecasts-and-presentations/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

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The North Shore continues to be one of the most attractive regions in Canada for new immigrants, according to Statistics Canada’s recently released 2016 census figures.

Since 2001, West Vancouver’s population has grown by 259. However, the municipality’s immigrant population rose by 3,840, bringing West Van’s overall percentage of immigrants from 36 to 44 per cent.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/west-van-s-immigrant-population-up-1.23082818

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New Zealand’s new Prime Minister-elect, Jacinda Ardern, has wasted no time in addressing that country’s soaring property prices.

Ardern – who seems to be taking over from Justin Trudeau as the global media’s latest, youngest, hippest nation leader du jour – announced October 24 that non-resident buyers will not be permitted to purchase existing homes anywhere in New Zealand (while also announcing a crackdown on immigration).

http://www.rew.ca/news/should-we-follow-new-zealand-s-foreign-buyer-ban-1.23075761?utm_source=Consumer%3A+Vancouver+Market+News&utm_campaign=beef2b4ec5-REW_Consumer_News_Friday_October_10_27_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8e94885b84-beef2b4ec5-93614499

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