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No "doom and gloom" in store for Canadian real estate – Royal LePage’s Soper

by Ephraim Vecina29 Jul 2020


Sustained market strength, subject to supply constraints, will be the predominant dynamic in the Canadian housing sector for the rest of the year, according to Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper and Sotheby’s Canada CEO Don Kottick.


In a joint interview with The Financial Post, the two executives highlighted the major role that housing inventory will play in the period immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic eases.

Soper said that home prices largely rely on the balance between supply and buyer activity.

“There are a lot of people who are looking to put roofs over their heads,” Soper said. “We just don’t see the number of homes for sale, the supply side of this, climbing to the point where home prices will collapse.”

Royal LePage’s latest predictions have placed annual growth by year-end at 2.5%.


https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/no-doom-and-gloom-in-store-for-canadian-real-estate--royal-lepages-soper-331927.aspx

MORTGAGE RATE FORECAST......BCREA


As the year ends, it's worth reflecting on how significantly the Canadian interest rate environment has changed in just twelve months. One year ago, the Canadian yield curve was its usual upward sloping shape, with markets expecting gradual rate increases by the Bank of Canada. Based partly on those expectations, Canadian mortgage rates were climbing. However, within 8 months the yield curve in Canada had inverted, bond yields tumbled, and Canadian mortgage rates were once again heading lower.


https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/mortgage-rate-forecast/


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Lending Warning

September 26, 2011

OSFI Issues “Early Warning” on Mortgage & HELOC Lending

Canada’s lending industry is witnessing rock-bottom interest rates and unrelenting competition.

The former has fuelled borrowing volumes. The latter has been known, on occasion, to encourage looser lending criteria.

Together, the two can be destructive to a banking system and economy.

That’s why OSFI (Canada’s banking regulator) is being proactive. In a speech today, OSFI head Julie Dickson laid it out like this for financial institutions:

  • Low rates have likely “increased the incentive for consumers – again – to borrow. Banks also have an incentive to lend, given low margins and the need to compete.”
  • As a result: “…We, at the OSFI, have been very focused on home equity lines of credit, and mortgage lending by institutions – both insured and uninsured books.”
  • “The message from OSFI to financial institutions is that…institutions should guard against loosening historical underwriting standards – for example, by moving to higher loan-to-value ratios or waiving any due diligence requirements.”
  • FIs must protect against imprudent lending “more so than they have historically.”

After her speech, Dickson told reporters:

  • “I think the concern is that the conditions are such that there would be tremendous pressure on banks to loosen [lending] standards."
  • As a result, OSFI is “stepping in to increase the monitoring” of lender portfolios.
  • “I think it's prudent to increase [FI] capital levels as soon as we can." (This was in response to a separate question on the new Basel III capital/liquidity standards.)

Dickson also noted that OSFI is presently cooperating with the international Financial Stability Board to develop global guidelines "for what constitutes safe mortgage lending." That includes down payment, loan-to-value and income verification parameters.

Despite the warning, Dickson acknowledged that Canadian banks have “managed risk” well to date, adding that Canadian FIs are in “a position of strength”.


Sources: OSFI, Globe & Mail, Reuters, Wall Street Journal


Rob McLister, CMT

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