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No "doom and gloom" in store for Canadian real estate – Royal LePage’s Soper

by Ephraim Vecina29 Jul 2020


Sustained market strength, subject to supply constraints, will be the predominant dynamic in the Canadian housing sector for the rest of the year, according to Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper and Sotheby’s Canada CEO Don Kottick.


In a joint interview with The Financial Post, the two executives highlighted the major role that housing inventory will play in the period immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic eases.

Soper said that home prices largely rely on the balance between supply and buyer activity.

“There are a lot of people who are looking to put roofs over their heads,” Soper said. “We just don’t see the number of homes for sale, the supply side of this, climbing to the point where home prices will collapse.”

Royal LePage’s latest predictions have placed annual growth by year-end at 2.5%.


https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/no-doom-and-gloom-in-store-for-canadian-real-estate--royal-lepages-soper-331927.aspx

MORTGAGE RATE FORECAST......BCREA


As the year ends, it's worth reflecting on how significantly the Canadian interest rate environment has changed in just twelve months. One year ago, the Canadian yield curve was its usual upward sloping shape, with markets expecting gradual rate increases by the Bank of Canada. Based partly on those expectations, Canadian mortgage rates were climbing. However, within 8 months the yield curve in Canada had inverted, bond yields tumbled, and Canadian mortgage rates were once again heading lower.


https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/mortgage-rate-forecast/


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CANADA'S TWO LARGEST REAL ESTATE MARKETS HEAD IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

 

Royal LePage – The Homeowner Summer 2017

 

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, Canada’s residential real estate market saw substantial price growth in the first quarter of 2017. While the majority of Canadian housing markets posted modest gains, price appreciation across much of Ontario significantly outpaced the rest of the country. Meanwhile, the pace of home price appreciation in Greater Vancouver was noticeably lower than the historic highs witnessed in 2016, and for the first time since 2013, home values for the region as a whole declined on a quarterly basis.

 

In the first quarter of 2017, the price of a home in Canada increased 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $574,575. When broken out by housing type, the price of a two-storey home rose 13.9 per cent year-over-year to $681,728, and the price of a bungalow climbed 10.9 per cent to $490,018. During the same period, the price of a condominium increased 8.9 per cent to $373,768.

 

“For the first time in several years, real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto are headed in opposite directions,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “The Vancouver market stalled, as confused consumers took to the sidelines after a series of uncoordinated moves by all three levels of government. With its housing shortage becoming more acute, Toronto easily stepped forward to assume the title of Canada’s most overheated real estate market.”

 

Significant home price appreciation, caused by market dynamics similar to those that have driven housing activity in the Greater Toronto Area, is being seen across the entire “Golden Horseshoe” region of south-central Ontario, and as far away as Windsor and London in southwestern Ontario. In fact, the torrid pace of home price appreciation in much of Ontario contributed almost half of the national aggregate home price increase in the first quarter, with the rest of Canada appreciating by a healthy, but much lower, 6.4 per cent year-over-year when excluding all Ontario-based regions.

 

“The overall Canadian market is healthier in 2017 than it has been in years, yet the downside risks are greater too,” concluded Soper. “Our economy, which has recovered nicely from the 2014 oil crisis, is sadly dependent on moves by an unpredictable U.S. federal government and can be swayed by unforeseen global events, such as fallout from Europe’s restructuring. Still, housing activity is strong and prices are rising at a healthy mid-single-digit rate across the land. The trend in Alberta, Quebec and Atlantic Canada is particularly encouraging. Our concerns with the state of Canadian real estate begin and end in Toronto and Vancouver.”

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